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In 2016, Donald Trump promised to build a 鈥渂ig, beautiful鈥� wall on our southern border and make Mexico pay for it. He kept his promise to build the wall, but it鈥檚 ugly and Mexico didn鈥檛 pay for it. During his second term Trump has built another type of 鈥渨all鈥� by alienating our allies, befriending foes, upsetting the world economic order and isolating the US from the world. Trump鈥檚 approval ratings are in the high 30s, historically low for a U.S. president.

In 2020, Americans elected Joe Biden because they found Trump鈥檚 policies and erratic behavior troubling. Biden made big pledges ranging from COVID control, student debt forgiveness, increasing the federal minimum wage, and ending 鈥渇orever wars.鈥� The pandemic is under control, but the Supreme Court ruled Biden鈥檚 student loan forgiveness illegal, the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan was an embarrassment, and the 鈥渆ndless鈥� wars continue. Joe Biden鈥檚 legacy is a complex mix of achievements and controversial missteps, leaving him as one of the most polarizing presidents in U.S. history. So, in 2024, we got Donald Trump,聽 again.

Donald Trump made huge promises including 鈥渢he largest deportation program in American history,鈥� end 鈥渆ndless鈥� wars, enact tariffs, eliminate 鈥渂irth right" citizenship, 鈥渄rill baby drill,鈥� roll back regulations, undo Biden鈥檚 ban on fossil fuel development, pardon his favorite criminals, cut federal funding for schools 鈥減ushing critical race theory,鈥� and roll back electric vehicle policies. Those promises appealed to over 77 million voters. Trump has acted on most with varying degrees of success.

In January 2025, Donald Trump鈥檚 approval rating was 48%, with a 45% disapproval rating. A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released April 21 showed only 30% of Americans approve of Trump鈥檚 handling of the economy, something that was once his strong suit. That鈥檚 down from only 38% approving in March. In the same poll, a whopping 72% of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and the president鈥檚 overall approval rating is a dismal 33%.

While Trump鈥檚 border wall is highly effective (illegal immigration declined by historic levels), his policies which created a "wall" of alienation and isolation have proven highly unpopular.

There was a time when Donald Trump鈥檚 endorsement was key to winning elections. The path to Mar-a-Lago was heavily traveled by politicians eager to receive Trump鈥檚 blessing. That seems to be changing.

Recent US elections show a notable shift towards the Democratic Party, with an increasing tilt among younger voters, women, and minority groups. To date, 12 state legislative seats have flipped from Republican to Democratic control in special elections. When accounting for Democratic gains in the 2025 off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the total number of flips from Republican to Democratic is 30. By contrast, no seats have flipped in the opposite direction. Democrats have overperformed Republicans by 4.5 percentage points on average. Some Democratic wins came in deep red states, including Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi, often by margins that make Republican leaders uneasy. Two special election victories in Florida including one which includes Mar-a-Lago, provided more evidence that the Democratic success rests on a motivated base and winning over disgruntled Republicans and independents.

Other signs: Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a majority mandate cementing his hold on Canada鈥檚 Parliament April 13th. Canada realizes the US is no longer a trustworthy trading partner and has signed numerous deals with other partners.

Trump prot茅g茅, Viktor Orban was defeated in a landslide after ruling Hungary 16 years and tilting it to the far right. In a misguided effort, Trump sent Vice President Vance to campaign for Orban. Voters were unconvinced.

Trump鈥檚 latest fiasco is his criticism of Pope Leo鈥檚 call for peace in the Middle East. Trump had support from most Catholics, with 55% voting for him in 2024, while 43% chose Vice-President Harris. That 12-point spread marked a notable break from 2020, when the Catholic vote was evenly divided.

There are signs Trump鈥檚 wall of alienation and isolation is crumbling, one brick at a time. We'll learn much in November.