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Across Arizona, 365,000 renters could face eviction over the next four months, according to a recently published analysis by the international consulting firm .

The at the uses Stout鈥檚 methods for making local predictions while the program鈥檚 provides cost estimates: The state could pay over $2 billion and the county upwards of $419 million for costs related to a surge of evictions. Among the expenses: related child-welfare cases; medical and emergency room visits; shelter fees; and involvement in the juvenile court system.

Ducey鈥檚 order delaying evictions for renters affected by COVID-19 is scheduled to expire July 22.

There are no plans to extend the order at this time, said Patrick Ptak, the governor鈥檚 spokesman, who added that the state is continuing to monitor the situation.

鈥淪ince March, $5.7 billion has been paid out to 15 million initial and continuing unemployment claims,鈥� Ptak said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to see anyone kicked out of their home.鈥�

Pima County and the city of Tucson are meeting regularly to prepare for what could be an explosive crisis, compounded by people still struggling to file unemployment claims.

Further, over the last few weeks, there have been delays in unemployment payments brought on by a statewide effort to weed out fraud in thousands of claims. Ptak said the fraud investigation is happening not just in Arizona, but in several states nationwide.

A 鈥渘umber of checks鈥� have been withheld over the last two weeks due to the investigation, said Brett Bezio, a Department of Economic Security spokesman.

鈥淭his followed a spike in claims being filed about two weeks ago,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he department assessed all claims received to determine those that contained possible fraud and have released payments for those that did not trigger a fraud indicator.鈥�

Requests for more information and exact numbers were not released to the 51黑料网 as of Friday, but Bezio did say there are 鈥渢ens of thousands of pandemic unemployment assistance claims identified as potential fraud being held as we evaluate the circumstances of those claims.鈥�

Tucson already a 鈥渢op鈥� city for evictions

During prepandemic times, Tucson was already a 鈥淭op 25 evicting city,鈥� with a filing rate more than 3% above the national average, according to the national , Princeton University鈥檚 nationwide database of evictions.

As Tucson prepares for evictions to increase, the city鈥檚 housing director, Liz Morales, said Tucson is setting up a system to make direct payments to landlords, and also will be asking landlords to hold off eviction requests as they try to help tenants stay or find alternative housing.

Together, the city and county have about $14.5 million from the CARES Act 鈥� a sum that Houston ran through in less than a day of providing housing assistance earlier in the pandemic.

Morales said the county鈥檚 constables have been proactive in working with the city. The plan is for the constables to refer people directly when they are about to serve eviction papers.

鈥淗opefully, within two weeks, we鈥檒l have a good process and a quick way for them to access us,鈥� Morales said.

Another message she wants to get out: Tenants need to contact their landlords if they are experiencing COVID-related challenges, including layoffs. Morales said several property owners and managers here said that鈥檚 still not happening enough.

鈥淢aybe they are afraid to let the landlord know what their issues are, but I think if most landlords know they are struggling, they will work with them and help them find resources,鈥� she said.

Daniel Tylutki, interim director for Pima County Community Development and Neighborhood Conservation, said his office is planning to collaborate with both the city and local nonprofits to try to help.

Pima County is hiring 25 people to help with the waiting list, which includes 5,300 active applications. Tylutki said they are working on about 1,300 right now.

During a typical year, Tylutki鈥檚 office assists about 1,500 people with rental assistance. During the pandemic, it has received about five years鈥� worth of requests, so far.

鈥淥ne major concern all of us can agree on is that more time is needed to get the funds to people that are suffering,鈥� said Meghan Heddings, executive director with Family Housing Resources, adding that the current requirements to apply for help are 鈥渙verly burdensome, especially for someone in crisis mode, and therefore many people never finish pulling together all of the items needed.

鈥淭here are positive steps happening, but the likelihood of the county employing 25 new staff, training them and being able to distribute the funds available to all those that need it by July 23 is an unrealistic task.鈥�

End of protection: 鈥渁 pending tsunami鈥�

Many of the nonprofits that will help people who lose their home during the months ahead are already stressed with requests.

The end of Ducey鈥檚 executive order is a 鈥減ending tsunami,鈥� says Peggy Hutchison, CEO of the Primavera Foundation.

鈥淭he nonprofit sector is working closely with the for-profit sector to prevent evictions and keep our residents and our communities safe from the coronavirus,鈥� she said.

鈥淲e need the governor to work with us to do what鈥檚 best for the residents across the state. An investment in eviction prevention now will be a huge step in preventing the spread of the coronavirus while also helping to save our economy.鈥�

A lack of affordable housing, evictions, and homelessness have been at crisis levels for years, said Jay Young, executive director with the Southwest Fair Housing Council.

鈥淭he market is not producing enough housing across the spectrum, particularly affordable housing. Section 8 and public housing have years-long wait lists,鈥� Young said. 鈥淧eople facing evictions have very few resources to assist them and almost never have counsel to represent them. People are homeless, generally speaking, because we lack the political will as a country to house them.鈥�

And, he said, all of these issues are now being greatly exacerbated by the pandemic.

Solving these issues will require that the federal government fund nonprofits at dramatically higher levels, he said.

鈥淭he data shows that people of color are much more likely to live in neighborhoods of low opportunity and high rates of poverty in Tucson and most cities and towns throughout the country,鈥� Young said. 鈥淭his pandemic has again made it glaringly apparent that our communities are still separate and unequal in many ways. 鈥�

Ron Barber, district director for Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, said legislation introduced in the House and co-sponsored by Kirkpatrick would expand the federal eviction moratorium under the CARES Act, which is set to expire at the end of the month, and expand the moratorium to cover all renters until March 2021.

Doing so would help people most at risk from domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and substance abuse compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, Barber said.

鈥淲e know from reports by police and social service agencies that these are some of the 鈥榟idden鈥� negative impacts of the stay-at-home requirements, along with unemployment being at an all-time high,鈥� Barber said.

鈥淭he solution is in the hands of the governor and the Congress.鈥�