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鈥淪o what looked to be like a peak is no longer a peak, and the case counts continue to trend up,鈥� said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor with the University of Arizona鈥檚 Zuckerman College of Public Health.

Each week Gerald writes a report summarizing weekly coronavirus trends. He sends it to a variety of people, including fellow public-health faculty at Arizona State University and the University of Arizona, along with state and local public health officials.

Last week, the cases went underreported by about 15% statewide, he said. And In Pima County, they were underreported by about 25%.

鈥淚t looks like the issue is even bigger for Pima County,鈥� Gerald said. 鈥淲hat that means is when I go back and look at the data, aggregated by week, that Pima County hit a new peak last week,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e didn鈥檛 know it.鈥�

Dr. Francisco Garcia, Pima County鈥檚 chief medical officer, said he started noticing an uptick in new cases Tuesday.

He doesn鈥檛 think it鈥檚 a new peak, but rather a continuation of the last one, he said.

The dip in cases is not that big, he said. But the health department is following this 鈥渓ike a hawk.鈥� And the data is changing day by day.

As the economy opens back up, case counts will likely rise due to more social interactions. Gov. Doug Ducey let his stay-at-home-order expire May 16. And in the weeks before it expired, the governor allowed the economy to start gradually opening up.

鈥淪o I think that the peak that we will see from the governor鈥檚 actions won鈥檛 actually happen so quickly,鈥� said Dr. Garcia.

It will likely take another two weeks or so, he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 part of the reason why I don鈥檛 think this is a peak.鈥�

鈥淓ven when he turned on the spigot, not everybody rushed out to the street,鈥� he said. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e identifying right now are a lot of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases.鈥�

Typically there is a reporting lag for new coronavirus cases of four to seven days, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Gerald typically accounts for a one-week reporting lag in his reports. The 51黑料网 does the same for our weekly coronavirus graphs.

鈥淲hat had been a relatively short lag is now a longer lag,鈥� Gerald said.

On Friday, ADHS did not respond to a request for comment on the longer lag, although Gerald had an idea of what caused it.

鈥淲hat I鈥檝e heard through the grapevine from two different unrelated sources is that the testing blitz basically kind of overwhelmed the testing facilities,鈥� Gerald said. 鈥淚t has slowed their reporting times.鈥�

This same reporting lag is likely to occur for the week ending May 24, he said. 鈥淚t makes it look like May 17 was a peak, when in fact, we have to be very concerned that it鈥檚 not really a peak but rather it鈥檚 this reporting lag that鈥檚 now showing up as the blitz.鈥�

There has been a lot of focus on increasing the number of tests, Gerald said. But he said this increase may not be as beneficial if the tests cannot be reported in a timely manner.

It鈥檚 鈥渇rustrating鈥� that the data reporting lags so late, Garcia said. 鈥淵ou end up kind of revising these figures as you go along.鈥�

The laboratory reporting process to the state is 鈥渒ind of broken,鈥� he said.

鈥淭here鈥檚 this tension between trying to provide timely information versus providing accurate information, and the problem is the underlying data doesn鈥檛 allow us to be both timely and accurate,鈥� Gerald said. 鈥淲e kind of have to balance those two considerations.鈥�

Reporting lags aside, Garcia said his main take-away is, 鈥淭his ain鈥檛 over.鈥�

He seriously doubts things will be back to normal this summer, he said. 鈥淭his is a marathon, not a sprint.鈥�